Over the past several decades, the prevalence of diabetes has risen dramatically in developed and developing countries making diabetes a key health priority globally. The rising prevalence of diabetes is often interpreted as meaning that more people are developing diabetes, and that interventions to prevent diabetes are failing. However, increasing prevalence may also be due to improved survival of people with diabetes, because this increases the length of time that each individual remains within the population. Only incidence (i.e. the annual rate of new cases of diabetes) can measure the risk for the population, as well as indicate the success or otherwise of population-level prevention initiatives. Unfortunately, accurate and up-to-date diabetes incidence data are rare. However, the availability of large registry and administrative databases is starting to change this, and provides a means of analysing trends in diabetes incidence. There is evidence from a few of these data sources showing that the incidence of diabetes may be beginning to stabilise in certain parts of the world. This presentation will provide a review of the current evidence around patterns of diabetes incidence and present some preliminary findings showing that the epidemic may be starting to abate.